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US Weather Outlook: Polar Vortex Retreats, Pattern Gets Wonky, and Regional Changes

Recent weather patterns across North America indicate a significant shift. The polar vortex, which brought extreme cold and snow to the eastern US, is weakening due to a sudden stratospheric warming event, causing it to retreat northward. This shift will lead to a warming trend in the East, with temperatures rising into the 30s and 40s, and a return to winter conditions in the West with increased storm activity bringing snow and rain. Despite the recent warm spell, many mountain ranges in the West face snow deficits, with some areas experiencing snow droughts at 50-90% below average, impacting water supplies and drought mitigation efforts. The jet stream pattern is changing, with a trough over the West and a ridge over the East, resulting in more moisture-laden storms affecting Michigan, the Great Lakes, and the eastern US. These changes are expected to bring several small to medium winter storms, with some areas experiencing snow, sleet, or freezing rain. The polar vortex is projected to move toward northern Asia, with the Arctic Oscillation tightening, which will reduce the frequency of Arctic cold outbreaks in the East. Meteorologists warn that the weather will become more unpredictable, with a 'wonky' upper-air flow characterized by multiple bends in the jet stream. This pattern will produce a series of storm systems over the next two weeks, leading to fluctuating temperatures and varied precipitation. While the cold air will recede temporarily, there is potential for the vortex to return around March. Overall, the coming weeks will see a transition from the persistent cold to more variable and stormy conditions, with some relief from the extreme cold in the East and a return to winter in the West.

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