AUKUS, the trilateral defense pact between the US, UK, and Australia, faces significant challenges amid ongoing reviews and shifting geopolitical dynamics. US defense officials, including John Noh, have indicated that the pact’s key component—Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines—may require adjustments to ensure sustainability, due to strains on the US submarine industrial base and broader strategic uncertainties. The agreement, signed in 2021, was initially seen as a major step in countering China's rising naval power in the Indo-Pacific. However, practical concerns about submarine production timelines, costs, and Australian industry capacity have raised doubts about the pact’s future. Public support in Australia is also wavering, with polls showing only about half of Australians believing the deal enhances national security. The US is increasingly cautious about its commitments, with some officials suggesting that the agreement could be scaled back or delayed, risking a loss of trust among allies like Australia. This skepticism is compounded by domestic issues in the US, including mounting debt, declining manufacturing, and political divisions, which mirror Britain’s post-World War I decline. Furthermore, the broader geopolitical landscape shows signs of US retrenchment from Asia, with actions such as pausing military aid to Taiwan and reducing US engagement in regional alliances like the Quad. China’s rapid economic and military rise further complicates the strategic environment, making the effectiveness of submarine deterrence questionable amid advances in autonomous underwater technology. Meanwhile, Australia’s internal debate reflects concerns over the cost, industrial capacity, and reliability of US commitments. Critics warn that Australia might end up with a limited submarine capability, spending billions without gaining full sovereignty or strategic independence. Overall, the future of AUKUS remains uncertain, with both the US and Australia grappling with internal and external pressures that threaten to weaken their alliance. The pact, once heralded as a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific security, now risks becoming a symbol of strategic overreach and the limits of American influence in a shifting global order.