Weak January Jobs Report Expected Amid Revisions and Economic Uncertainty
The upcoming January jobs report, delayed due to the government shutdown, is anticipated to show minimal or no job growth, with economists forecasting gains around 50,000 jobs, potentially as low as 45,000 or as high as 135,000 due to seasonal adjustments. The report will also include final benchmark revisions for payrolls over the past year, which are expected to reveal significant downward adjustments, possibly erasing most of the previously reported gains since early 2024. This suggests a weakening labor market, with some experts warning of potential job losses soon. Despite a still-low unemployment rate of 4.4%, recent data indicates signs of labor market deterioration, including plunging job openings, record-low hiring, and increased layoffs, especially in January. The White House and Federal Reserve officials are adjusting expectations, citing factors like immigration policies and rising productivity driven by AI as reasons for subdued job growth. The report's results and revisions are likely to influence future monetary policy decisions, with regional Federal Reserve Presidents emphasizing patience and caution amid ongoing inflation concerns.
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