IRS Tax Season Outlook: Refund Timelines, Staffing Challenges, and Disorganization Risks
The IRS has officially opened the 2026 tax season, with most taxpayers able to file and expect refunds within 21 days if filing electronically, especially with direct deposit options. Paper filings or those requiring amendments may take four weeks or longer. Refunds for key credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit are expected by March 2 for direct deposit recipients. Taxpayers can track their refunds via the IRS 'Where's My Refund?' tool, available 24 hours after electronic filing and after four weeks for paper returns. The average refund last year was $3,167, and projections suggest this could increase by around $1,000 due to recent tax law changes. However, recent reports highlight potential delays and disorganization within the IRS due to staffing shortages stemming from workforce exodus during the previous administration, which could impact refund processing times. Experts warn that the IRS's ongoing staffing crunch and organizational challenges might slow down refunds this season, especially for paper and amended returns. The IRS is gradually phasing out paper checks, favoring electronic payments, but will still issue paper checks if necessary.
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