Federal Reserve's December Meeting and Policy Outlook in 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to implement another quarter-point interest rate cut this week despite dissent among policymakers concerned about persistent inflation. The Fed has already reduced rates twice this year, with speculation of a third cut in December driven by signals from officials like New York Fed President John Williams, who indicated room for lowering rates. However, there is internal debate, with some officials favoring rate cuts to support a weakening labor market, while others prefer to hold rates steady to prevent inflation from rising further. The upcoming December FOMC meeting is highly significant as it will be the first test of the Fed's revised policy framework, which shifted from Flexible Average Inflation Targeting back to a more traditional approach emphasizing balanced goals. The new framework raises questions about whether the Fed will accept higher inflation into 2026 and how it will weigh employment versus inflation concerns. The debate is further complicated by potential changes in Fed leadership, with President Trump’s nominee Kevin Hassett possibly influencing the Fed's independence. Market expectations remain cautious, but some banks forecast two rate cuts in 2026, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about future monetary policy.
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