A significant El Niño weather pattern is anticipated to develop in the Pacific Ocean, likely beginning late spring to early summer 2026, with forecasters indicating up to a 60 percent chance of its formation. This natural climate cycle, characterized by warmer-than-average ocean water in the tropical Pacific, is expected to reshape weather patterns across the United States and influence the Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chat Merrill noted that trends support El Niño developing by autumn, despite the 'spring predictability barrier' which can make long-range forecasting challenging during this period. Senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls added that early signs of development are present, but the change is slow. El Niño events typically raise average global temperatures, potentially making 2026 and 2027 hotter than 2025, which was a La Niña year but still one of the hottest on record. This warming can impart more energy to storms, leading to more extreme weather. Specifically for the U.S., an El Niño pattern is expected to bring increased rain and floods to the southern regions, as well as southern Europe. Conversely, the northern U.S. and Canada may experience drier and warmer than normal conditions. The most recent El Niños occurred during the winters of 2018-19 and 2023-24. Regarding the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in September, El Niño generally tends to increase mid- to upper-level wind shear. This phenomenon can reduce the chances of severe hurricanes in the North Atlantic, a factor NOAA describes as a beneficial change in atmospheric circulation. NOAA's Climate Prediction Service (CPS) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are among the services monitoring the equatorial subsurface temperature index, which has significantly increased, reflecting the expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific. NOAA utilizes satellites and a network of buoys to continuously collect data on sea surface temperatures, currents, and winds, providing crucial advance warnings for emergency preparedness.